Session 10

Technology assessment and forecasting

This lessons talks about assessing and evaluating new technologies and forecasting the future to ensure that we stay ahead in the game. By being more aware of the future challenges and opportunities, we can be more prepared for the future.

Prof showed us a video produced by Siemens to kick-start the lesson. There are 2 mega trends mentioned in the video mainly, urbanization and demographic change. People are shifting from the rural areas to cities in search of better jobs. When people move into cities, they increase the demand for resources. People need to have clean access to a water supply hence water purification techniques are extremely important. Moreover, there will also be a rise in energy demand. The essential point here is that the energy of the future needs to be from a clean source and it needs to be renewable. Living in the cities, the cities needs to have a proper transportation system for people to be mobile. Mobility is now a success factor. As the world becomes increasingly interconnected, people can do business with people living at the other side of the world. Hence, mobility is extremely essential. There is a huge number of cars on the road which causes an increased congestion. In addition, there is an increase in demand for security and also in healthcare. A high importance were also given to the quality of healthcare. As the medical industry moves towards using a more computerized system, more and more patient information are going to placed in electronics to allow easy retrieving of the files. In a situation where an emergency patient has been admitted to the nearest hospital, the patients medical history that are stored in other hospitals can be retrieved easily. Siemens is a company that is investing in the technologies of the future. It is open about its future plans as it produces the video that mentions the 2 mega trends that will be affecting the world most. This may be beneficial to Siemens as similar companies can get together and work together forming partnerships. On the flip side, your competitors would know about your future plans and try to affect them.

It is essential that one understands about assessment and forecasting. Assessment is focusing on specific technology whereas forecasting is about a wide range of technology. By ensuring that we can access and forecast, we are able to have good foresight. 

Since research and development of a product is expensive, we need to know and consider its viability before investments are made. Having a limited amount of resources, we need to narrow down the choices that are viable. Developing countries have to rank their needs. Problems like poverty and starvation should be given priority instead. The problem that some developing countries faced are that when resources are allocated to develop new technologies that do not help solve immediate problems are often faced with negative reactions.  However, if the right investment is made, in the future, the developing country will benefit.

Through this lesson, I learnt that before investments is made into a technology; a lot of consideration has been put in. 

Personal Rating: 8.5/10